The Spillover

Brazil’s runoff is a dead heat, but markets are betting that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, will win and finally rein in the country’s debt. This week on The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and CFR Senior Vice President Shannon O’Neil unpack why voters and investors want different things from Brazil’s leadership, and what this election could signal for Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, and the region at large.
 
Host:
 
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Guest:
 
Shannon K. O’Neil, Senior Vice President of Studies and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Mentioned on the Episode:
 
Angela Pinho, “20% say violence is the country's main problem, and 18% cite health, Datafolha points out,” Diario de Comercio
 
Adam B. Ellick, “Online Gambling and Crushing Debt Are Transforming Brazil,” New York Times
 
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, Rebecca Patterson and Veda Partners Cofounder Henrietta Treyz discuss an impending confrontation over the debt ceiling in the lame-duck session. They warn that a 2011-style standoff could unfold if political brinkmanship and a lack of serious effort to stabilize the country’s debt trajectory continue.
 
Host:
 
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Guest:
 
Henrietta Treyz, Co-Founder and Director of Economic Policy, Veda
 
Mentioned on the Episode:
 
“Direct Government Payments to U.S. Farm Producers, 2022–26F,” Economic Research Service USDA
 
Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, and Peter McCrory, “Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI,” The Anthropic Institute
 
Pavan Acharya and Catherine Allen, “Here’s Why Republicans Are Worrying About High Gas Prices Ahead of the Midterms,” Politico
 
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, covering the “Fragile Four” economies, OpenAI’s funding crisis, the AI IPO race, the Iran war, and more.
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to discuss how the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve on inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s task forces, and the role of AI in monetary policymaking.
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Guest:
 
Adam Posen, President, Peterson Institute for International Economics
 
Mentioned on the Episode:
 
Adam S. Posen, “China Still Has What America Needs,” Foreign Affairs
 
Adam S. Posen, “Strategic Direction for Europe in the New Economic Geography,” Intereconomics
 
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the escalating geopolitical headwinds the region faces.
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Guest:
 
Anne Applebaum, Pulitzer Prize–winning author; staff writer, The Atlantic; Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University
 
Mentioned on the Episode:
 
Anne Applebaum, “MAGA Is Making the World Safe for Corruption,” The Atlantic
 
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, they argue, highlights a battle between two visions of how the AI industry will develop, as well as concerns about safety and oligopoly.
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Mentioned on the Episode:
 
Aditya Soni, Anhata Rooprai, and Harshita Mary Varghese, “Nvidia Bets $13 Billion on Open AI Models With Hugging Face Deal,” Reuters
 
Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs
 
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that the United States can grow its way out of record debt, and whether AI can deliver the growth, jobs, and tax revenue needed to make that happen.
 
Host:
 
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Guest:
 
Natasha Sarin, Professor of Law and Cofounder, The Yale Budget Lab
 
Mentioned on the Episode:
 
Natasha Sarin, “No Wonder Everyone’s Rallying Around This Terrible Idea,” New York Times
 
“Scott Bessent Says US Can ‘Grow Our Way Out’ of $40 Trillion Debt—Economist Says ‘Not Feasible’,” TradingView
 
“The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036,” Congressional Budget Office
 
Rebecca Patterson, “What the Treasury’s Buyback Surprise Says About the Bond Market,” CFR.org
 
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week, host Rebecca Patterson sits down with energy and climate expert Vijay Vaitheeswaran to discuss the U.S. government's acquisition of 35 percent equity stake in a Venezuelan oil company and how managing demand and boosting efficiency are critical for long-term energy security and climate progress.
 
Host:
 
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Guest:
 
Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, Philip D. Reed Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Mentioned on the Episode:
 
Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Why Nuclear Energy Is Making a Global Comeback,” CFR.org
 
Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Crude Calculations: Why the Iran War Hasn’t Yet Caused an Oil Shock,” CFR.org
 
Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Geothermal’s Time Has Finally Come,” The Economist
 
Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “Americans’ Electricity Bills Are Up. Don’t Blame AI,” The Economist
 
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

The financing behind the AI boom has grown so large that treasury bond yields are approaching levels not seen since the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis. But is the risk to the financial market overblown? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, to discuss the threat AI debt poses to the U.S. bond market.
 
Hosts: 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) 
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) 
 
Guest: 
Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo
 
Mentioned on the Episode:
 
Torsten Slok, “A Slower AI Payoff Would Be Everyone's Problem,” Apollo
 
Torsten Slok, “Monitoring the AI Trade: How Growing Debt Issuance Is Reshaping the Landscape,” Apollo
 
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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Artificial intelligence has become the biggest variable in the U.S. economy, but is the country really positioned to win the global race for economic dominance in AI? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby draw on Patterson's new chapter for the book Geopolitics of AI to guess at an eventual winner. The pair weighs the inputs of talent, capital, energy, and public support, and question popular assumptions about inevitable American success. 
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) 
 
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Mentioned on the Episode:
 
Geopolitics of AI, Johns Hopkins University Press
 
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. 
 
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.