The Spillover

U.S.-China AI Race Escalates + Chip Bans Aren’t Working + A Lesson From Nuclear Proliferation

This episode unpacks the evolving U.S.-China AI rivalry, the limits of technological export controls, and what’s really at stake as both countries race to shape the future of intelligence.
 
Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine! 
 
Host:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Guest:
 
Chris McGuire, Senior Fellow for China and Emerging Technologies, CFR
 
We discuss:
How U.S. export controls on chips are slowing China’s AI progress, but not stopping it, as loopholes, smuggling and cloud access weaken enforcement.
Why China’s progress is stronger than expected, with competing models only months behind the U.S.
As Chris McGuire, CFR senior fellow, puts it: “Whoever has the better AI is going to have the offense-defense advantage in the cyber realm.” 
Why compute and advanced chips are the real bottleneck.
Why the “AI intelligence explosion” is overstated, with real-world deployment slowed by infrastructure, regulation, and human constraints.
The tension between containing China and working with it on global AI safety and governance.
 
Mentioned on the Episode: 
 
Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House 
 
Chris McGuire, “The New AI Chip Export Policy to China: Strategically Incoherent and Unenforceable,” CFR.org
 
Chris McGuire, “Trump’s Reversal on AI Chips is a Historic Blunder,” The Washington Post 
 
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released!
 
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Iran War Spirals + Oil Shocks Keep Coming + China’s Advantage

As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalates, global markets are absorbing the shocks: oil prices are swinging, inflation expectations are rising, and safe-haven assumptions are being tested. China, by contrast, is looking relatively resilient, buoyed by strategic energy reserves, diversified supply chains, and policy flexibility. This episode examines how the conflict is driving inflation, complicating monetary policy, and handing China a geoeconomic edge.
 
Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine!
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Mentioned on the Episode: 
 
Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House 
 
Coco Feng, “China Issues New Safety Rules for OpenClaw. Here Are the Dos and Don’ts” South China Morning Post 
 
Hany Abdel-Latif and Adina Popescu, “Spillovers From Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)
 
Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi, “Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply at the Start of 2026 as Economic Concerns Increase,” Purdue University/CME Group
 
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released!
 
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Introducing The Spillover

How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world.
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations” Turns 250 + Free Markets Face Off Against Industrial Policy

On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, this episode revisits a book that laid the foundations of modern economics and then considers the tensions between free markets and industrial policy today. It highlights the ways in which specialization and global trade remain powerful drivers of prosperity, reflecting Smith’s insight that self-interest can benefit society when shaped by competition and institutions, while noting the ongoing relevance of his warnings about moral judgment, the rule of law, and resistance to cronyism.
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Mentioned on the Episode: 
 
“Adam Smith is Misinterpreted and His Influence Overstated,” Economist 
 
Gita Gopinath, “Geopolitics and its Impact on Global Trade and the Dollar,” International Monetary Fund (IMF) 
 
Caitlin Oprysko, “Trump’s Return Supercharges Lobbying Revenues,” Politico
 
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released!
 
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Iran War Ignites Oil-Shock Stagflation Fears + Who Really Controls the Energy Market?

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and Iran’s energy-producing neighbors have been dragged into the conflict. This episode looks at the spillovers from the resulting energy price shock and explores how structural shifts, including a surge in U.S. oil production, China’s emergence as a dominant buyer, and the growth of renewables have reshaped oil’s geopolitical and economic role.
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Guest:
 
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research, J.P. Morgan
 
Mentioned on the Episode: 
 
“Outlook for Energy Demand,” International Energy Agency (IEA) 
 
Ignacio Presno and Andrea Prestipino, “Oil Price Shocks and Inflation in a DSGE Model of the Global Economy,” Federal Reserve 
 
John Kehoe, “Iran War Oil Inflation is a Nightmare for RBA,” Financial Review
 
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released!
 
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

The AI Bubble + The Productivity Paradox + India’s AI Summit

Is there an AI bubble, or just an OpenAI bubble? Markets remain focused on whether valuations can be justified by sufficiently fast revenue growth, while the real economy braces for AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and other disruptions. With global leaders and tech CEOs convening in India to debate AI governance, the stakes are rising fast. Credit markets, hiring data, and business sentiment could signal whether this year will bring a continued jobless expansion or something more concerning.
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Mentioned on the Episode: 
 
Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs 
 
Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence 
 
Alap Shah, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” Citrini Research 
 
Matt Shumer, “Something Big Is Happening in AI — and Most People Will Be Blindsided,” Forbes 
 
Martha Gimbel, “An AI Productivity Boom? Don’t Count Your (Productivity Data) Chickens,” Yale Budget Lab
 
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released!
 
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. 

U.S. Supreme Court Rules Against Trump’s Tariffs

In a 6-3 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the government’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), holding that the statute does not authorize a president to impose sweeping tariffs. In this breaking news episode, host Rebecca Patterson is joined by Michael Froman, president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former U.S. trade representative, to unpack the decision and discuss potential spillovers into financial and labor markets.
 
Host:
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Guest: 
Michael Froman, President, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released!
 
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. 

The “European Onion” + China, Brazil, and India Take On MAGA

European leaders are at an inflection point. After high-level meetings in Munich and Brussels, they must decide what role Europe will play in the unfolding new world order, politically and economically. Can China, India, and Brazil provide lessons on how to navigate the U.S. trade war? Can a “multi-speed” Europe with less and simpler regulation become a reality? As the world’s second-largest economy, the EU’s choices will shape global growth—and markets are watching.
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Guest: 
 
Edward Fishman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); Author, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare
 
Mentioned on the Episode: 
 
Edward Fishman, “Want to stop Trump bullying your country? Retaliate,” The Guardian 
 
“MEPs propose new legal framework for innovative companies,” European Parliament 
 
“How Polymarket Is Turning Bitcoin Volatility Into a Five-Minute Betting Market,” Yahoo Finance 
 
“Why a dart frog poison believed to have killed Alexei Navalny points to the Kremlin,” NBC News
 
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released!
 
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Japan’s Heavy Metal PM + Political Threats to Markets + China’s Sad Horse

This episode examines the “Fragile Four” economies—the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France—and why politics is increasingly spilling into financial markets. After a long stretch where markets largely shrugged off political volatility, an “age of inflation” coupled with high debt, aging demographics, rising defense spending, and anxious populations across the Fragile Four are making markets more reactive to political shocks. We break down what’s driving the shift and why cracks are appearing now.
 
Hosts:
 
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
 
Mentioned on the Episode: 
 
“Accidental ‘crying horse’ toy wins hearts in China,” Reuters 
 
“Economic Anxiety Is a Global Problem,” Gallup
 
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released!
 
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.